Predictive Modeling for Unrated Carriers

Solicitation / RFP / RFQ

This document is a Sole Source Justification for a project by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center), in collaboration with the Intelligent Transportation Systems Joint Program Office (ITS JPO) and the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology (OST-R). The project aims to develop and validate a predictive actuarial model to assign an Interim Risk Rating to unrated Mexican-domiciled carriers operating along the U.S.-Mexico commercial border zone or conducting long-haul international transport. This rating will serve as a statistically valid proxy for FMCSA safety ratings, segmenting these carriers into distinct risk pools based on their probability of safety incidents and FMCSA violations.

• Development and validation of a predictive actuarial model.

• Aggregation of proprietary AI to identify non-traditional leading indicators of risk (e.g., crash scores, "chameleon" carrier identifiers).

• Segmentation of carriers into distinct risk pools based on safety incident and FMCSA violation probability.

• Creation of a "severity risk" score rather than just historical compliance.

• The document indicates a sole source award is being considered, as the company (Bluewire) is not accessible via other contract vehicles (GSA, NASA SEWP, FAA SAVES).

• Not applicable, as this is a justification for a sole source procurement, not a solicitation for proposals.

• The document notes that Bluewire is a small business.

• Market research identified Bluewire as the most suitable vendor due to its proprietary AI and ability to provide predictive risk assessment for unrated carriers, unlike competitors who are primarily data aggregators relying on trailing indicators.

• The model aggregates data across nine critical vulnerability gaps and uses dynamic peer-grouping to account for specific operational realities of international long-haul transport.

Forms / Attachments / Pricing Sheets

This document, "6913G626Q300017 Terms and Conditions.pdf", outlines the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) and Transportation Acquisition Regulation (TAR) clauses incorporated by reference into the contract. It serves to inform potential bidders of the standard terms and conditions that will govern the contract.

• FAR Clauses Incorporated by Reference: The document lists numerous FAR provisions and their titles, indicating that their full text is incorporated into the contract as if fully stated. Bidders can access the full text electronically via https://www.acquisition.gov/ and https://www.acquisition.gov/tar.
• Specific FAR Clauses Mentioned:
  • FAR 52.252-2: Clauses incorporated by reference.
  • FAR 52.252-6: Authorized Deviations in Clauses.
  • Several specific FAR clauses related to representations, certifications, prohibitions, and system registrations (e.g., FAR 52.203-18, FAR 52.204-7, FAR 52.225-2, FAR 52.225-25, FAR 52.240-90, FAR 52.203-19, FAR 52.204-13, FAR 52.209-10, FAR 52.212-4, FAR 52.222-19, FAR 52.222-36, FAR 52.222-50, FAR 52.223-23, FAR 52.226-8, FAR 52.232-30, FAR 52.232-33, FAR 52.232-40, FAR 52.233-3, FAR 52.233-4, FAR 52.240-91, FAR 52.240-92, FAR 52.240-93).
• TAR Clauses Incorporated by Reference:
  • TAR 1252.232-70: Electronic Submission of Payment Requests.
  • TAR 1252.239-70: Security Requirements for Unclassified Information Technology Resources.
  • TAR 1252.239-71: Information Technology Security Plan and Accreditation.
  • TAR 1252.239-73: Limitations on the Use of Disclosure of Third-Party Contractor Reported Cyber Incident Information.
  • TAR 1252.239-93: Information and Communication Technology Accessibility.
• Electronic Submission of Payment Requests (TAR Class Deviation 2025-02_A1): This section details the requirements for submitting payment requests electronically via the DELPHI system (iSupplier), including definitions, electronic payment procedures, invoice requirements, and registration instructions for login.gov and DELPHI.

Bidders must review these incorporated clauses to understand the legal and regulatory requirements that will apply to the contract. Particular attention should be paid to clauses concerning System for Award Management (SAM) registration, Buy American requirements, prohibitions related to Iran, security requirements for information technology, and the specific procedures for electronic submission of payment requests. Failure to comply with these terms and conditions could impact proposal submission and contract performance.

Statement of Work (SOW) / Performance Work Statement (PWS)

The objective of this research is to analyze LiDAR data and develop parameters for validating a revised plume rise algorithm in AERMOD version 24142.

• Reformat LiDAR data collected at LAX, ATL, and DEN to match current aircraft and airport information (airframe, engine model, engine location, meteorology).

• Clean the data and provide quality control.

• Analyze the data and compute parameters for plume rise model validation.

• Parameters to include: height, width, center of plume, and standard deviation of plume in horizontal and vertical planes, all with changes over time, aircraft category, and meteorology.

• Provide figures illustrating plume evolution over time where practical.

• The project work is expected to be completed by December 31, 2026.

• Data are in the possession of a lead scientist at AECOM.

• Government-Furnished Information: None.

• Raw LiDAR dataset (without cleaning, quality control, or reformatting): May 31, 2026

• Processed LiDAR dataset (with cleaning, quality control, and reformatting): July 15, 2026

• Draft technical report: August 31, 2026

• Final technical report: September 30, 2026

• All pertinent data and analysis documentation: December 31, 2026

• Weekly teleconferences: Weekly through December 31, 2026

• All electronic deliverables will be emailed to the Volpe Center technical point of contact (TPOC).

• Deliverables will be reviewed by the Government for compliance, timeliness, and format.