Predictive Modeling for Unrated Carriers

Sole Source Justification

This document justifies a sole source procurement for a project investigating methods to partner with private industry to create a real-time picture of freight carrier legitimacy. The project aims to fuse public FMCSA data with private industry data to develop and validate a predictive actuarial model that assigns an Interim Risk Rating to unrated Mexican-domiciled carriers operating along the US-Mexico commercial border zone or conducting long-haul international transport. This rating will serve as a statistically valid proxy for FMCSA safety ratings.

• Development and validation of a predictive actuarial model.

• Assignment of an Interim Risk Rating to unrated Mexican-domiciled carriers.

• Segmentation of carriers into distinct risk pools based on their probability of safety incidents and FMCSA violations.

• Identified Bluewire as a capable provider due to its proprietary AI for aggregating non-traditional leading indicators of risk (e.g., crash scores, "chameleon" carrier identifiers).

• Competitors like Central Analysis Bureau (CAB) and SambaSafety are primarily reactive data aggregators relying on trailing indicators, failing to adequately assess unrated carriers or new entrants.

• Bluewire's model uses AI for text mining on social sentiment, recruitment behaviors, and "chameleon carrier" identifiers, unlike competitors who rely on rigid datasets.

• Bluewire's model transforms traditional safety ratings into a multidimensional GAP Score that proactively identifies "severity risk" without requiring a completed FMCSA audit.

• It aggregates data across nine critical vulnerability gaps to create a weighted rating, assigning an Interim Risk Rating to carriers invisible in traditional databases.

• The model uses proprietary AI and dynamic peer-grouping, analyzing extensive DOT data to create trend lines and account for specific operational realities of cross-border transport.

• It precisely segments carriers into risk pools by identifying latent vulnerabilities missed by traditional FMCSA ratings, flagging "chameleon" behavior or deteriorating safety cultures before formal intervention.

• Bluewire is a small business.

• The company is only accessible via direct award, not through existing GSA, NASA SEWP, or FAA SAVES contracts.

• The document explicitly states "Sole Source: Only one responsible source and no other supplies or services will satisfy agency requirements."

• Brand Name: N/A

• Unusual and Compelling Urgency: N/A

Solicitation / RFP / RFQ

This document is a Request for Quote (RFQ) from the US DOT/Volpe Center. The government is seeking to develop and validate a predictive actuarial model. This model will assign an Interim Risk Rating to unrated Mexican-domiciled carriers operating along the US-Mexico commercial border zone or conducting long-haul international transport. The rating will serve as a proxy for FMCSA safety ratings, categorizing carriers into risk pools based on safety incidents and FMCSA violations.

• Aggregation of multi-source datasets and an updated dashboard displaying relevant data sources and metrics.

• Development of a Risk Pool Definition and Scoring Algorithm.

• Monthly status reports for Tasks 1-2.

• Monthly teleconferences for Tasks 1-2.

• A Firm Fixed Price (FFP) Purchase Order is anticipated upon award.

• Quotes are due by 03/26/2026, 3:00pm EST.

• Pricing requested is FOB Destination.

• All deliverables are to be submitted to the Technical Point of Contact via e-mail.

Not specified in this document.

This form is a request for quote and does not constitute an order.

Forms / Attachments / Pricing Sheets

This document outlines the "Commercial Terms and Conditions" for the contract, primarily incorporating Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) and Transportation Acquisition Regulation (TAR) clauses by reference. It details the specific provisions and clauses that apply to the contract, along with their sources (Statute, EO, Other).

• FAR Clauses: Lists numerous FAR provisions (e.g., FAR 52.203-18, FAR 52.204-7, FAR 52.225-2, FAR 52.212-4) covering topics such as prohibitions on certain agreements, System for Award Management registration, Buy American certificates, and contract terms for commercial products and services.
• TAR Clauses: Incorporates several TAR clauses by reference, including those related to electronic submission of payment requests, security requirements for IT resources, and information technology accessibility.
• Payment Procedures: A significant portion details "Electronic Submission of Payment Requests" (TAR Class Deviation 2025-02_A1), specifying requirements for electronic invoice submission via the DELPHI system (iSupplier), including definitions, invoice content, and payment system registration through login.gov.
• Certifications: Includes a certification statement required with invoices, affirming compliance with various laws and executive orders, including those related to ending illegal discrimination and DEI initiatives.

This document is crucial for understanding the legal and regulatory framework governing the contract. Bidders must pay close attention to the incorporated FAR and TAR clauses, as they define contractual obligations, compliance requirements, and payment procedures. Specifically, the detailed requirements for electronic payment submission through DELPHI/iSupplier are critical for financial operations post-award.