USDA-ERS Macroeconomic Forecasts & ERS Farm Income Data

Statement of Work (SOW) / Performance Work Statement (PWS)

To improve the Economic Research Service's (ERS) function in providing USDA with long-term macroeconomic forecasts, which are used in ERS's farm income estimates, the USDA Baseline, and other ERS and USDA outlook analyses. The service will also provide analysis of the implications of macroeconomic changes on U.S. agriculture and access to an extensive historical and projections database of macroeconomic variables for the United States and countries worldwide.

• Develop and maintain a Windows-compatible global macroeconomic model.

• Provide monthly reports with consistent U.S. and international macroeconomic forecasts, including updated historical data.

• Forecasts should cover at least 5 years ahead, with 10-year horizons provided at least four times a year.

• The model must be usable for complex policy analysis and reflect global market interdependencies.

• Provide monthly reports containing forecasts and analysis of economic conditions and developments for 81 economies and six trading blocs.

• Offer technical support, documentation, and training.

• Provide sitewide access or define user access for ERS/MTED data sets.

• The model must be usable in generating tabulated reports.

• Forecast data must be available online.

• Monthly reports should include concise analysis, key forecast changes, underlying drivers, central bank policy, a detailed risk section, and a long-term outlook.

• The model must be updated monthly as new data becomes available.

• Period of Performance: 01 July 2026 through 30 June 2027, with four option years.

• Place of Performance: Virtual.

• The contractor must have at least a 10-year track record.

• The model must be Keynesian in the short-run and Monetarist in the long-run.

• The model covers 81 economies (11 Americas, 22 Europe, 15 Asia, 22 Middle East/Africa) plus the Eurozone.

• Contractor(s) may require a suitability determination through USDA/ERS and must complete mandatory training.

• No travel is expected.

Solicitation / RFP / RFQ

This solicitation seeks quotes for "Macroeconomic Forecasts & Farm Income Estimates Data" for the United States Department of Agriculture – Economic Research Services (USDA-ERS). The government is procuring these services to support its data and research needs.

• The primary deliverable is Macroeconomic Forecasts & ERS Farm Income Estimates Data.

• Offerors must provide a detailed explanation of their ability to meet Section 3.0 Deliverables listed in the Statement of Work (SOW).

• Offerors must also provide a detailed explanation of any requirement listed in the SOW that cannot be successfully accomplished.

• This is anticipated to be a firm-fixed-price requirements contract.

• The contract will consist of one (1) one-year base period and four (4) one-year option periods.

• The total duration of the contract shall not exceed five (5) years.

• Period of Performance for the base year is 07/01/2026 to 06/30/2027.

• Offerors must submit pricing for all individual line items to be considered responsive.

• Quotes will be evaluated in accordance with FAR 12.204 to determine if they are fair and reasonable.

• The technical approach will be evaluated based on the offeror's ability to provide a sound and compliant approach.

• Past performance will be evaluated using a rating system (Acceptable, Neutral, Unacceptable).

• Award will be made to the offeror whose proposal is determined to be the highest technically rated, provided the price is fair and reasonable and past performance is acceptable or neutral.

• Offerors agree to hold prices firm for 90 calendar days from the date specified for receipt of offers.

• Questions are due by June 22, 2026, at 12:00 PM Eastern Time and should be emailed to jacob.toft@usda.gov.

• The acquisition is unrestricted.

• NAICS Code: 541690, Size Standard: $19 Million.

• Offerors are not required to meet a qualification requirement to be eligible for award.

• Attachment 1 - Performance Work Statement contains the complete list of requirements.

• The USDA is a tax-exempt agency.

• The place of performance is currently unknown and will be determined at the time of award.